16 MONTEREY COUNTY WEEKLY OCTOBER 12-18, 2023 www.montereycountyweekly.com War Time The scale of Hamas’ violent assault on Israel complicates hope of mediation. By Isabel Debre FORUM Previous conflicts between Hamas and Israel have ended through mediation by powers with a keen interest in Middle East peace. However, the unprecedented nature of the assault by the group could make any diplomatic efforts fruitless for now. Egypt, which has a peace treaty with Israel and also borders the Gaza Strip, has in the past repeatedly been called upon to act as mediator, with Cairo also happy to add to its diplomatic prestige. Gulf Arab states, notably Qatar, could also be interested in brokering peace while Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to warm ties with Israel even as it keeps up contacts with Hamas. But the scale of casualties on both sides, with Hamas killing hundreds of Israelis as well as taking hostages and Israel hitting back with deadly force, complicates any mediation. “I doubt that we can enter into mediation now given how the events have evolved,” says Denis Bauchard, adviser for the Middle East at the French Institute of International Relations. With the offensive revealing the failures of the Israeli security and intelligence services, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will certainly want “for internal political reasons to appear as the strong man” who will “win the war before diplomacy can start,” he says. “The unprecedented nature of this conflict will certainly require mediation and intervention different from all previous mediations,” adds Hasni Abidi, director of the Geneva-based Center for Studies and Research on the Arab World and the Mediterranean. Agnes Levallois, vice president of the Institute for Mediterranean Middle East Research and Studies, says the composition of Netanyahu’s coalition government, which includes radical nationalists, “also complicates the situation.” With Israel already exacting revenge through relentless air strikes, threatening a full-scale siege and with a ground offensive also possible, “there is a moment when Hamas will need to find a way out, including for the sake of its own population, who will pay the highest price.” Should a moment arise when diplomacy does become a possibility then eyes will turn first to Egypt, which has traditionally played the role of mediator. Qatar, which provides Gaza with crucial financial aid, could also have a role. “Qatar has the means to influence Hamas,” Levallois says. The United States is less widely viewed as part of a potential solution, with prickly relations between Netanyahu and the administration of President Joe Biden. After energetic diplomatic efforts in the past came to naught, Washington will also be wary of investing in any peace drive, especially as presidential elections approach. (Speaking on Oct. 10, Biden said, “We must be crystal clear: We stand with Israel.” At least 14 Americans were killed.) While world nations navigate their roles in a shifting Middle East, the violence continues to claim lives. As of this writing, the death toll has exceeded 2,500. Isabel Debre is a journalist covering the Middle East. This story first appeared in The Arab Weekly. OPINION The violence continues to claim lives. UPSEASIDE.COM • (831) 899-2232 1760 FREMONT BLVD, SEASIDE UNIVERSITY PLAZA SEASIDE’S LIFESTYLE SHOPPING CENTER lynnsarcade.com Hours open: M-F 4p-12a, Sat 12p-12a, Sun 10a-10p Reserve for your party today! Attention pinheads! Join the Monterey Flipper Pinball League Meetups every Monday A great way to meet new folks, learn about pinball, and start the work week off right! Check it out at MFPinball.org Order Online at HarumiSeaside.Menu11.com (831) 899-9988 OPEN DAILY FOR LUNCH & DINNER ONLY THE FINEST AND THE FRESHEST
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